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2024 National Parliament Election in France: The Rise of the Far Right and Political Uncertainty


In the European Parliament elections held on 7-9 June, far-right parties increased their votes. In France, one of the most important countries in Europe, the increase was more "dramatic". The far-right Le Pen's party, the RN (31%), doubled its lead over the Besoin d'Europe coalition (14%), which includes President Macron's Renaissance party, while the social democratic Socialist Party came third (13.8%). With the far-right RN winning by a large margin, Macron decided to call early elections for the lower house of parliament, the national assembly. The first round of elections will be held tomorrow and the second on 7 July. However, he is taking a serious risk with this move. Upon this decision, all leftist parties, from the social democratic Socialist Party to the Communist Party, decided to enter the elections jointly under the name Nouveau Populaire Front (New Popular Front). The centre-right LR (Republicans), formerly one of the two largest parties (with the Socialist Party), split in two. When Ciotti, the leader of the party, decided to enter into an alliance with the extreme right, the party split in two. The party is entering the elections with two lists; the list prepared by Ciotti together with the RN and the list prepared by the parties opposed to working with the extreme right.

What about the election results?

It is almost certain that the far-right RN will win by a landslide, but it is uncertain whether it will win an absolute majority. If the RN wins an absolute majority, France will have its first far-right prime minister since World War II. If the RN wins an absolute majority, the party's leader will put pressure on Macron to make Bardella prime minister. Macron will probably have to appoint him. If this happens, it could cause serious ruptures in Europe and France. However, if the RN fails to win an absolute majority, the complex structure of the parliament will continue. Both results will be bad news for Macron.


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